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Prediction for CME (2015-05-06T17:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-05-06T17:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8453/-1
CME Note: CME arrival time very unclear, could be later in the day
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-05-10T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-05-10T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 May 07 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50507
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 May 2015, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 May 2015 until 09 May 2015)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 May 2015  10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2015  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2015  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity continues to be dominated by NOAA ARs 2235 (Catania
51) and 2239 (Catania 54). The strongest flare was an M1.9, from AR 2239
peaking at 11:49 UT on May 6. A filament eruption to the east of NOAA AR
2235 created a partial halo CME (with angular width around 140 degrees and
speed of 300 km/s), first seen by LASCO-C2 at 19:00 UT on May 6. This CME
is mostly directed to the south, but it may have an Earth directed
component, expected to arrive on May 10.

Active conditions (K=4) were observed yesterday locally in Belgium and
minor storms (Kp=5) at planetary levels. The Earth is still under the
influence of the CME from May 2 with magnetic fields slightly above 10 nT.
If Bz turns to the south active conditions may occur again.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 101, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 06 May 2015
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 136
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 035
AK WINGST              : 028
ESTIMATED AP           : 029
ESTIMATED ISN          : 085, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
06  1145  1149 1151 N17E67 M1.9 SN  34   54/2339      V/3 
END

BT

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Lead Time: 59.50 hour(s)
Difference: -12.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-05-07T12:30Z

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